ENSO Forecast on File
ENSO phase & intensity probability forecast (ECMWF SEAS5 + Météo-France), leads 1-6 months. Probabilities are the raw fraction of ensemble members in each class.
From forecast to action
When a major El Niño or La Niña is in the forecast, here is how to turn the signal into preparation - four steps, four tabs.
See what's coming
How strong an El Niño or La Niña is likely, and how many months ahead.
The probability bars below ↓Find your region's risk
Where the event shifts rainfall, drought and heat - drill down to your country.
Open Teleconnections →Weigh the confidence
How reliable the forecast is at that lead and season, verified against the record.
Open Skill →Act on the lead time
Pre-position supplies, brief teams and trigger anticipatory-action plans months ahead.
Months of lead time = time to act.Forecast Probability by Lead Time
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Latest Forecast Ensemble Plumes
Latest forecast issue on file: Loading…. Ensemble plumes are shown for the latest issue only; previous issue months are folded into the Hindcasts tab.
Latest forecast plumes
Observed overlay source: Loading method…
Per-centre ensemble member plumes
Individual member trajectories from every contributing centre. Thin lines = members; thick line = centre's ensemble median. Centre selection follows the same checkbox set as the probability plume above.
About This Forecast
The probability bars above show the raw fraction of ensemble members falling in each ENSO intensity class. Each member's NINO index is first bias- and amplitude-corrected to the 1993-2016 hindcast (z = (anomaly − μhindcast) / σhindcast, matching observed variance per the ECCC/Merryfield method); extreme El Niño additionally requires a NINO3 precipitation anomaly ≥ 5 mm/day. No statistical calibration is applied.
The hierarchical decision rule determines the most likely class by first selecting the dominant phase family (La Niña / Neutral / El Niño), then choosing the intensity within that family - avoiding vote-splitting across intensity classes of the same sign.
Forecast vintage is shown in the metadata bar above. Each row shows the probability distribution for the indicated valid month at the given lead. See Skill for verification metrics and acceptance gate results.